A formula that Graham intended as a warning, V = EPS x (8.5 + 2g), is very popular today due to an omission in recent editions of The Intelligent Investor.
Introduction
There is a surprisingly common misconception that Graham recommended investing in stocks using the formula:
V = EPS x (8.5 + 2g), or
Value = Current (Normal) Earnings x (8.5 plus twice the expected annual growth rate)
A quick online search for "Benjamin Graham Formula" will bring up dozens of analysts, websites and stock screeners recommending stocks using this wrong formula. In fact, it is more popular than the actual 17 calculations given by Graham for stock selection, probably because it is easier to use.
What Graham Actually Wrote
Graham was completely against any kind of Charting/Technical Analysis/Forecasting. He always analyzed stocks based on past performance and wrote entire chapters on stock selection. This formula is not mentioned anywhere in them.
He only mentions this formula to show how unrealistic the market's growth expectations are, when seen retrospectively.
A few paragraphs after mentioning this formula, he writes:
"Warning: This material is supplied for illustrative purposes only, and because of the inescapable necessity in security analysis to project the future growth rate for most companies studied. Let the reader not be misled into thinking that such projections have any high degree of reliability or, conversely, that future prices can be counted on to behave accordingly as the prophecies are realized, surpassed, or disappointed."
The Footnote
There is even a footnote in the original 1973 edition of The Intelligent Investor (click on the image to see a scan) to clarify that this equation does really give any "true value."
This footnote is missing in more recent editions of the book (it's now in the "Endnotes" section which is possibly the cause of the confusion). But the warning is present in the new editions too.
The Irony
The irony of this entire story is that the very formula with which Graham meant to show how unreliable market forecasts and earnings forecasts were, is the formula recommended the most today as the "Benjamin Graham Formula"!
There is perhaps good reason why Graham's protege and most famous student, Warren Buffett, said:
"Beware of geeks bearing formulas."
A more comprehensive article about this formula — with additional screenshots comparing the two editions — is now available at Understanding The Benjamin Graham Formula Correctly.
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Submitted by GrahamValue. Created on Friday 4th November 2011. Updated on Tuesday 6th June 2023.
Comments
Growth rate
The problem here is selecting the expected growth rate. The problem with the future is that it has not happened yet. So you can be way off with selecting a growth rate to plug in. This is a big problem for privately held companies that are not publicly traded. How do you establish a stock value for the private investors. My current employer is employee owned. They have a formula for establishing the quarterly trade price. But the formula usually results in many more sales than purchases. So the company ends up buying back stock.
Spot on
Absolutely, Northewest Bob!
In his book, Graham uses this formula to replicate other forecasting methods; while retrospectively showing how stocks never behave according to any such forecasts. As seen above, he gives multiple warnings to never use any such formula.
And yet, this is the most commonly recommended Benjamin Graham method today.
To quote Graham again:
Update
Buffett's and Graham's remarks on the futility of financial projections can be seen at — Security Analysis - Projected Revenue or Past Earnings?
Graham Formula
I've read the 1949 edition of The Intelligent Investor & am going through the 1951 Edition ( 3 rd) of Security analysis, I've not come across the said formula in the Intelligent investor & not in security analysis so far. What edition of those books were you referring to.
Thank You
A more comprehensive article
Dear BRMR,
The formula is present both in the last edition of The Intelligent Investor written by Graham in 1973, as well as the recently released edition that was updated with commentary by Jason Zweig.
A more comprehensive article about this formula — with additional screenshots comparing the two editions — is now available at Understanding The Benjamin Graham Formula Correctly.
Thanks a lot for pointing
Thanks a lot for pointing this out. I read this chapter just yesterday, I ignored the endnote and misunderstood that this formula was the recommended method for deriving the intrinsic value. Wonder what losses I would have incurred had it not been for this article!!
A more detailed analysis
Glad to be of help, Rajiv!
For a more detailed analysis of this issue, please see Understanding The Benjamin Graham Formula Correctly.
Thank you.